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Multilingual Demographic Dictionary, second unified edition, English volume

First migration probability

Multilingual Demographic Dictionary, second unified edition, English vol.
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First migration probability  (FIRST migration probability)


Longitudinal migration analysis 1 requires information on the successive moves of an individual over time, information which is normally available only from population registers (213-1) or retrospective surveys (203-8). Several refined measures of migration are available from this type of data, such as a first migration probability 2, defined as the probability that a group of non-migrants 3 aged x will be involved in migration for the first time before reaching age x + n . These probabilities can be used to calculate a non-migrant table 4. The latter, when combined with a life table (432-3) will lead to a double decrement survivorship schedule of non-migrants 5. Similarly, migration probabilities by order of move 6 can be computed, as well as the proportion of migrants of a given order who have not gone on to make a subsequent move within a certain migration defining interval. The all orders migration rate 7 is the ratio of moves of all orders in a year to the average population size of the cohort (117-2) over the year. The cumulation of these rates for a cohort up to a given date provides an estimate of the mean number of moves 8 in the absence of mortality. A survivorship schedule can be combined with an age-specific all orders migration table 9 to estimate the average number of remaining moves for an individual of a given age, given the prevailing mortality. More...