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Multilingual Demographic Dictionary, second unified edition, English volume
Difference between revisions of "Short-term forecast"
Multilingual Demographic Dictionary, second unified edition, English vol.
(Eugen Grebenik et al., first edition 1958) |
(Etienne van de Walle et al., second 1982 edition) |
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<!--'''short-term forecast'''--> | <!--'''short-term forecast'''--> | ||
| − | {{TextTerms|S=720|P=72|Ed= | + | {{TextTerms|S=720|P=72|Ed=II|CompleteIndexTerm=(SHORT-TERM forecast)| content= |
{{NewLineT|S=720|N=1}} {{ | {{NewLineT|S=720|N=1}} {{ | ||
| − | TofT|Lang=en|Ed= | + | TofT|Lang=en|Ed=II|N=1|Color=yes|Te=population projection}}{{ |
| − | TofT|Lang=ar|Ed= | + | TofT|Lang=ar|Ed=II|N=1|Te=إسقاط الديمغرافي}}{{ |
| − | + | TofT|Lang=cs|Ed=II|N=1|Color=yes|Te=populační proj ekce}}{{ | |
| − | TofT|Lang= | + | TofT|Lang=de|Ed=II|N=1|Te=Bevölkerungsvorausschätzung}}{{ |
| − | TofT|Lang=de|Ed= | + | TofT|Lang=es|Ed=II|N=1|Color=yes|Te=proyección de población}}{{ |
| − | TofT|Lang= | + | TofT|Lang=fr|Ed=II|N=1|Te=projection démographique}}{{ |
| − | TofT|Lang= | + | TofT|Lang=it|Ed=II|N=1|Color=yes|Te=proiezioni demografiche}}{{ |
| − | TofT|Lang= | + | TofT|Lang=ja|Ed=II|N=1|Te=将来人口推計}}{{ |
| − | TofT|Lang= | + | TofT|Lang=pt|Ed=II|N=1|Color=yes|Te=Projeções de população}}{{ |
| − | TofT|Lang= | + | TofT|Lang=ru|Ed=II|N=1|Te=Перспективное исчисление поколения}}{{ |
| − | + | TofT|Lang=ru|Ed=II|N=1|SubN=2|Te=Поколения, перспективное исчисление}}{{ | |
| − | TofT|Lang= | + | TofT|Lang=zh|Ed=II|N=1|Color=yes|Te=人口预测}} |
| − | TofT|Lang= | ||
| − | TofT|Lang= | ||
{{NewLineT|S=720|N=2}} {{ | {{NewLineT|S=720|N=2}} {{ | ||
| − | TofT|Lang=en|Ed= | + | TofT|Lang=en|Ed=II|N=2|Color=yes|Te=population forecast}}{{ |
| − | TofT|Lang=ar|Ed= | + | TofT|Lang=ar|Ed=II|N=2|Te=توقع ديمغرافي}}{{ |
| − | TofT|Lang= | + | TofT|Lang=cs|Ed=II|N=2|Color=yes|Te=populační prognóza}}{{ |
| − | + | TofT|Lang=de|Ed=II|N=2|Te=Bevölkerungsprognose}}{{ | |
| − | TofT|Lang=de|Ed= | + | TofT|Lang=es|Ed=II|N=2|Color=yes|Te=previsión demográfica}}{{ |
| − | TofT|Lang=es|Ed= | + | TofT|Lang=es|Ed=II|N=2|SubN=2|Te=proyección predictiva}}{{ |
| − | + | TofT|Lang=fr|Ed=II|N=2|Te=perspective démographique}}{{ | |
| − | + | TofT|Lang=fr|Ed=II|N=2|SubN=2|Te=prévision démographique}}{{ | |
| − | TofT|Lang= | + | TofT|Lang=it|Ed=II|N=2|Color=yes|Te=prospettive demografiche}}{{ |
| − | TofT|Lang=fr|Ed= | + | TofT|Lang=it|Ed=II|N=2|SubN=2|Te=previsioni demografiche}}{{ |
| − | TofT|Lang=fr|Ed= | + | TofT|Lang=ja|Ed=II|N=2|Te=人口予測}}{{ |
| − | TofT|Lang=it|Ed= | + | TofT|Lang=pt|Ed=II|N=2|Color=yes|Te=cenários de projeção}}{{ |
| − | TofT|Lang=it|Ed= | + | TofT|Lang=ru|Ed=II|N=2|Te=Прогноз населения}}{{ |
| − | TofT|Lang= | + | TofT|Lang=zh|Ed=II|N=2|Color=yes|Te=人口预报}} |
| − | TofT|Lang=pt|Ed= | ||
| − | |||
| − | TofT|Lang=ru|Ed= | ||
| − | TofT|Lang= | ||
{{NewLineT|S=720|N=3}} {{ | {{NewLineT|S=720|N=3}} {{ | ||
| − | TofT|Lang=en|Ed= | + | TofT|Lang=en|Ed=II|N=3|Color=yes|Te=projection period}}{{ |
| − | TofT|Lang=ar|Ed= | + | TofT|Lang=ar|Ed=II|N=3|Te=مدى}}{{ |
| − | TofT|Lang=de|Ed= | + | TofT|Lang=cs|Ed=II|N=3|Color=yes|Te=délka prognózy}}{{ |
| − | TofT|Lang=es|Ed= | + | TofT|Lang=de|Ed=II|N=3|Te=Vorausschätzungsperiode}}{{ |
| − | TofT|Lang= | + | TofT|Lang=es|Ed=II|N=3|Color=yes|Te=plazo}}{{ |
| − | TofT|Lang=fr|Ed= | + | TofT|Lang=es|Ed=II|N=3|SubN=2|Te=alcance cronológico}}{{ |
| − | TofT|Lang=it|Ed= | + | TofT|Lang=fr|Ed=II|N=3|Te=étendue}}{{ |
| − | TofT|Lang= | + | TofT|Lang=it|Ed=II|N=3|Color=yes|Te=periodo coperto}}{{ |
| − | TofT|Lang=pt|Ed= | + | TofT|Lang=ja|Ed=II|N=3|Te=推計期間}}{{ |
| − | TofT|Lang=ru|Ed= | + | TofT|Lang=pt|Ed=II|N=3|Color=yes|Te=previsão de população}}{{ |
| − | Lang=en|Lang2=ar|Lang3= | + | TofT|Lang=pt|Ed=II|N=3|SubN=2|Te=previsões demográficas}}{{ |
| + | TofT|Lang=ru|Ed=II|N=3|Te=Период прогнозирования}}{{ | ||
| + | TofT|Lang=zh|Ed=II|N=3|Color=yes|Te=预测时期}} | ||
| + | {{NewLineT|S=720|N=4}} {{ | ||
| + | TofT|Lang=en|Ed=II|N=4|Color=yes|Te=short-term forecast}}{{ | ||
| + | TofT|Lang=ar|Ed=II|N=4|Te=توقع قريب}}{{ | ||
| + | TofT|Lang=cs|Ed=II|N=4|Color=yes|Te=krátkodobá prognóza}}{{ | ||
| + | TofT|Lang=de|Ed=II|N=4|Te=kurzfristige Prognose}}{{ | ||
| + | TofT|Lang=es|Ed=II|N=4|Color=yes|Te=previsiones a corto plazo}}{{ | ||
| + | TofT|Lang=fr|Ed=II|N=4|Te=prévision à court terme}}{{ | ||
| + | TofT|Lang=it|Ed=II|N=4|Color=yes|Te=previsioni a breve termine}}{{ | ||
| + | TofT|Lang=ja|Ed=II|N=4|Te=短期的予測}}{{ | ||
| + | TofT|Lang=pt|Ed=II|N=4|Color=yes|Te=projeções a curto prazo}}{{ | ||
| + | TofT|Lang=pt|Ed=II|N=4|SubN=2|Te=prazo}}{{ | ||
| + | TofT|Lang=ru|Ed=II|N=4|Te=Краткосрочные прогнозы}}{{ | ||
| + | TofT|Lang=zh|Ed=II|N=4|Color=yes|Te=短期预报}} | ||
| + | {{NewLineT|S=720|N=5}} {{ | ||
| + | TofT|Lang=en|Ed=II|N=5|Color=yes|Te=component method}}{{ | ||
| + | TofT|Lang=en|Ed=II|N=5|SubN=2|Te=cohort-component method}}{{ | ||
| + | TofT|Lang=ar|Ed=II|N=5|Te=طريقة المركبات}}{{ | ||
| + | TofT|Lang=cs|Ed=II|N=5|Color=yes|Te=komponentní metoda}}{{ | ||
| + | TofT|Lang=de|Ed=II|N=5|Te=Komponentenmethode}}{{ | ||
| + | TofT|Lang=de|Ed=II|N=5|SubN=2|Te=Methode der jahrgangsweisen Fortschreibung}}{{ | ||
| + | TofT|Lang=es|Ed=II|N=5|Color=yes|Te=método por componentes}}{{ | ||
| + | TofT|Lang=es|Ed=II|N=5|SubN=2|Te=método de las componentes}}{{ | ||
| + | TofT|Lang=fr|Ed=II|N=5|Te=méthode des composantes}}{{ | ||
| + | TofT|Lang=it|Ed=II|N=5|Color=yes|Te=metodo delle componenti}}{{ | ||
| + | TofT|Lang=ja|Ed=II|N=5|Te=要因法}}{{ | ||
| + | TofT|Lang=ja|Ed=II|N=5|SubN=2|Te=コウホート要因法}}{{ | ||
| + | TofT|Lang=pt|Ed=II|N=5|Color=yes|Te=método das componentes}}{{ | ||
| + | TofT|Lang=pt|Ed=II|N=5|SubN=2|Te=método de coorte-componente}}{{ | ||
| + | TofT|Lang=ru|Ed=II|N=5|Te=Компонентный метод}}{{ | ||
| + | TofT|Lang=ru|Ed=II|N=5|SubN=2|Te=Когортно-компонентный}}{{ | ||
| + | TofT|Lang=zh|Ed=II|N=5|Color=yes|Te=要素法}}{{ | ||
| + | TofT|Lang=zh|Ed=II|N=5|SubN=2|Te=同批人要素法}} | ||
| + | {{NewLineT|S=720|N=6}} {{ | ||
| + | TofT|Lang=en|Ed=II|N=6|Color=yes|Te=base date}}{{ | ||
| + | TofT|Lang=ar|Ed=II|N=6|Te=منطلق}}{{ | ||
| + | TofT|Lang=ar|Ed=II|N=6|SubN=2|Te=مبدأ}}{{ | ||
| + | TofT|Lang=cs|Ed=II|N=6|Color=yes|Te=výchozí bod}}{{ | ||
| + | TofT|Lang=de|Ed=II|N=6|Te=Bevölkerung im Basisjahr}}{{ | ||
| + | TofT|Lang=es|Ed=II|N=6|Color=yes|Te=población inicial}}{{ | ||
| + | TofT|Lang=es|Ed=II|N=6|SubN=2|Te=población base}}{{ | ||
| + | TofT|Lang=fr|Ed=II|N=6|Te=point de départ}}{{ | ||
| + | TofT|Lang=it|Ed=II|N=6|Color=yes|Te=punto di partenza}}{{ | ||
| + | TofT|Lang=ja|Ed=II|N=6|Te=基準時}}{{ | ||
| + | TofT|Lang=pt|Ed=II|N=6|Color=yes|Te=população base}}{{ | ||
| + | TofT|Lang=pt|Ed=II|N=6|SubN=2|Te=população inicial}}{{ | ||
| + | TofT|Lang=ru|Ed=II|N=6|Te=Исходная дата}}{{ | ||
| + | TofT|Lang=zh|Ed=II|N=6|Color=yes|Te=基准日期}} | ||
| + | {{NewLineT|S=720|N=7}} {{ | ||
| + | TofT|Lang=en|Ed=II|N=7|Color=yes|Te=matrix method of projection}}{{ | ||
| + | TofT|Lang=ar|Ed=II|N=7|Te=طريقة التوقع المصفوفية}}{{ | ||
| + | TofT|Lang=cs|Ed=II|N=7|Color=yes|Te=maticová metoda projekcí}}{{ | ||
| + | TofT|Lang=de|Ed=II|N=7|Te=Matrixmethode der Vorausschätzung}}{{ | ||
| + | TofT|Lang=es|Ed=II|N=7|Color=yes|Te=método matricial de proyección}}{{ | ||
| + | TofT|Lang=fr|Ed=II|N=7|Te=méthode matricielle de projection}}{{ | ||
| + | TofT|Lang=it|Ed=II|N=7|Color=yes|Te=metodo matriciale di proiezioni}}{{ | ||
| + | TofT|Lang=ja|Ed=II|N=7|Te=行列（マトリックス）推計法}}{{ | ||
| + | TofT|Lang=pt|Ed=II|N=7|Color=yes|Te=método matricial de projeção}}{{ | ||
| + | TofT|Lang=ru|Ed=II|N=7|Te=Матричный метод прогнозирования}}{{ | ||
| + | TofT|Lang=zh|Ed=II|N=7|Color=yes|Te=矩阵预测法}}| | ||
| + | Lang=en|Lang2=ar|Lang3=cs|Lang4=de|Lang5=es|Lang6=fr|Lang7=it|Lang8=ja|Lang9=pt|Lang10=ru|Lang11=zh}} | ||
{{Gallery | {{Gallery | ||
| Line 53: | Line 109: | ||
| height=20 | | height=20 | ||
| lines=3 | | lines=3 | ||
| − | | | + | |720_1_1_en_II Population projection.ogg|'''population projection''' |
| − | | | + | |720_2_1_en_II Population forecast.ogg|'''population forecast''' |
| − | | | + | |720_3_1_en_II Projection period.ogg|'''projection period''' |
| + | |720_4_1_en_II Short-term forecast.ogg|'''short-term forecast''' | ||
| + | |720_5_1_en_II Component method.ogg|'''component method''' | ||
| + | |720_5_2_en_II Cohort-component method.ogg|'''cohort-component method''' | ||
| + | |720_6_1_en_II Base date.ogg|'''base date''' | ||
| + | |720_7_1_en_II Matrix method of projection.ogg|'''matrix method of projection''' | ||
}} | }} | ||
<noinclude> | <noinclude> | ||
| − | [[en- | + | [[en-II:short-term forecast]] [[ar-II:توقع قريب]] [[cs-II:krátkodobá prognóza]] [[de-II:kurzfristige Prognose]] [[es-II:previsiones a corto plazo]] [[fr-II:prévision à court terme]] [[it-II:previsioni a breve termine]] [[ja-II:短期的予測]] [[pt-II:projeções a curto prazo]] [[ru-II:Краткосрочные прогнозы]] [[zh-II:短期预报]] |
</noinclude> | </noinclude> | ||
| + | {{DEFAULTSORT:Short-term forecast}} | ||
<noinclude> | <noinclude> | ||
| − | [[Category:Term of the | + | [[Category:Term of the second edition of the multilingual demographic Dictionary]] |
[[Category:Population growth and replacement]] | [[Category:Population growth and replacement]] | ||
[[Category:72]] | [[Category:72]] | ||
</noinclude> | </noinclude> | ||
Latest revision as of 08:14, 5 February 2010
| Translation | |||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Section | English 720 |
Arabic 720 |
Czech 720 |
German 720 |
Spanish 720 |
French 720 |
Italian 720 |
Japanese 720 |
Portuguese 720 |
Russian 720 |
Chinese 720 |
| 720-1 | population projection | إسقاط الديمغرافي | populační proj ekce | Bevölkerungsvorausschätzung | proyección de población | projection démographique | proiezioni demografiche | 将来人口推計 | Projeções de população | Перспективное исчисление поколения —Поколения, перспективное исчисление |
人口预测 |
| 720-2 | population forecast | توقع ديمغرافي | populační prognóza | Bevölkerungsprognose | previsión demográfica —proyección predictiva |
perspective démographique —prévision démographique |
prospettive demografiche —previsioni demografiche |
人口予測 | cenários de projeção | Прогноз населения | 人口预报 |
| 720-3 | projection period | مدى | délka prognózy | Vorausschätzungsperiode | plazo —alcance cronológico |
étendue | periodo coperto | 推計期間 | previsão de população —previsões demográficas |
Период прогнозирования | 预测时期 |
| 720-4 | short-term forecast | توقع قريب | krátkodobá prognóza | kurzfristige Prognose | previsiones a corto plazo | prévision à court terme | previsioni a breve termine | 短期的予測 | projeções a curto prazo —prazo |
Краткосрочные прогнозы | 短期预报 |
| 720-5 | component method —cohort-component method |
طريقة المركبات | komponentní metoda | Komponentenmethode —Methode der jahrgangsweisen Fortschreibung |
método por componentes —método de las componentes |
méthode des composantes | metodo delle componenti | 要因法 —コウホート要因法 |
método das componentes —método de coorte-componente |
Компонентный метод —Когортно-компонентный |
要素法 —同批人要素法 |
| 720-6 | base date | منطلق—مبدأ | výchozí bod | Bevölkerung im Basisjahr | población inicial —población base |
point de départ | punto di partenza | 基準時 | população base —população inicial |
Исходная дата | 基准日期 |
| 720-7 | matrix method of projection | طريقة التوقع المصفوفية | maticová metoda projekcí | Matrixmethode der Vorausschätzung | método matricial de proyección | méthode matricielle de projection | metodo matriciale di proiezioni | 行列（マトリックス）推計法 | método matricial de projeção | Матричный метод прогнозирования | 矩阵预测法 |
Population projections 1 are calculations which show the future development of a population when certain assumptions are made about the future course of population change, usually with respect to fertility, mortality and migration. They are in general purely formal calculations, developing the implications of the assumptions that are made. A population forecast 2 is a projection in which the assumptions are considered to yield a realistic picture of the probable future development of a population. Although the projection period 3 is variable, short-term forecasts 4 are the rule, as the margin of error to which forecasts are subject increases considerably as the length of the forecast’s period increases. The most frequently used method of projection is the component method 5 or cohort-component method 5 which takes the population distributed by age and sex at a base date 6 and carries it forward in time, cohort by cohort, on the basis of separate allowances for fertility, mortality and migration. When matrix algebra is used for component projections, the method is sometimes called matrix method of projection 7.
- 1. Projections are also made in terms of educational, economic and social characteristics. Backward projections which might be more accurately called retrojections, use similar methods to trace the past evolution of the population.
Audio pronunciation
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