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Multilingual Demographic Dictionary, second unified edition, English volume

Talk:70

Multilingual Demographic Dictionary, second unified edition, English vol.
Revision as of 14:00, 6 August 2013 by Nicolas Brouard (talk | contribs) (703: momentum (to be revised))
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The growth of an open population consists of the balance of migration 6 or net migration 6 and natural increase 7, which is the excess of births over deaths 8 or deficit of births over deaths 9★ sometimes called the balance of births and deaths 8. --Nicolas Brouard 20:17, 5 August 2013 (CEST)
A zero population growth 10★ refers to a population of invariable size.--Nicolas Brouard 20:15, 5 August 2013 (CEST)
Any change in one variable affects the overall growth and structure of a population; in this context growth effects  and structural effects  are determined. --Nicolas Brouard 20:28, 5 August 2013 (CEST)
Pichat's semi-stable population concept disappeared...
On appelle population quasi stable 7 une population à fécondité constante et à mortalité variable; les caractéristiques des populations de ce type sont voisines de celles des populations semi-stables 8, ou populations fermées à répartition par âges invariable.
A quasi-stable population 7 is a formerly stable population with constant fertility and gradually changing mortality.
  • The Trilingual Demographic Dictionary Arabic-English-French of 1988 uses semi-stable population*. --Nicolas Brouard 19:44, 11 June 2012 (CEST)
A quasi-stable population 7 is a formerly stable population with constant fertility and gradually changing mortality; characteristics of this type of population are similar to those of semi-stable populations 8★ which are closed population with a constant age structure. --Nicolas Brouard 12:08, 6 August 2013 (CEST)
Even in the first English edition the concept of growth potential (developed by Paul Vicent in 1946) wasn't defined correctly: it is the effect of a non stabilized age structure on the growth potential (until stabilization). The first German edition described the concept correctly. The second German edition discovered the discrepancy with the English edition and probably tried to fill the gap by introducing many synonyms of inertia and moment and finally "demographic momentum" which is in fact the concept introduction by Paul Vincent. Keyfitz (1975) quoted Vincent (1946), introducing his famous formula (which is already in Vincent). In summary, the best compromise is probably to do like the German version by introducing some explanations. Here is my proposition:
Human populations never reach exact stability in practice, as fertility and mortality rates constantly change, but the computation of a stable population as a model and of its intrinsic rates may provide an index of the growth potential 5 of a set of age-specific fertility rates applied to a non stabilized age structure. Related to the growth potential, the moment of inertia of a population or demographic momentum 13★ should be mentioned: it refers to the dynamics hidden in the age structure due to a delayed growth response caused by the biological fact that from the time of birth of a cohort (116-2) to the beginning of their period of fertility (620-1) a certain amount of time passes. A population may for this reason still grow, even though the birth rate drops long ago. The reverse case is also possible. The momentum is particularly altered in case of discontinuity in the evolution of births (during wars for example) and abrupt reversals of trends. (English to be revised) --Nicolas Brouard 15:00, 6 August 2013 (CEST)